By David Bakkegaard Karsbøl, CIO at Selected Group

History will judge the central banks harshly for the extremely low (negative) interest rates we have had for several years. The same applies to the decision-makers who, with spectacular nonchalance, have made Europe in particular dependent on Russian oil.

The negative interest rates led to bubbles in the real estate market and in the stock market, where IT shares were traded at price/earnings above 200, and where the fantasies seemed almost endless.

But now the illusion is over. Netflix and Facebook (Meta) have fallen 60%, energy prices and interest rates have exploded at the same time, resulting in an unappealing cocktail effect. A bit like mixing mackerel and tomato.

Europe will be the hardest hit, and only gas users have yet another idea of how bad it will be - and already is. Have you spoken to your utility company lately? Most of Europe's most energy-intensive industries are already in hibernation and many are at risk of shutting down for good. What does all this mean for the future of investment markets?

The common denominator for the best-selling investments in the coming years will be that they are tangible and have solid business models with proven products and processes. With significantly higher interest rates, business models with cash flows far into the future will become less interesting. This is also part of the explanation for the sluggish returns in growth stocks relative to value stocks since the New Year.

Unfortunately, it has become even more difficult to establish such solid businesses in Europe when we no longer have access to a stable energy supply, and Germany is already rolling out emergency plans to ration energy and prevent energy exports to other European countries at peak times. When the crib is empty, the horses bite.

In the US, some states also have energy supply problems, but compared to Europe, these are minor issues. American industry therefore has a competitive advantage over the coming years. European industry desperately needs backup energy supply capacity.

My best guess for the next big trend in investment would therefore be energy storage and backup capacity. With current energy prices and the desperate need to cover peak load periods, a number of former technologies that were teetering on the edge of profitability have now become quite interesting for long-term investors.

Alongside these developments, the massive investments in green energy (solar and wind) are likely to continue because they still enjoy such strong political support and because at current energy prices such projects are actually quite attractive. Investors looking to capitalize on these developments should also look to the commodities market to supply industrial and rare metals for the transition.

In short, the focus of investment markets has rapidly shifted from airy-fairy business models with large, future and uncertain growth to the very basic inputs needed for the production of common necessities such as heat and electricity.

Years of massive underinvestment in energy supply and higher interest rates will almost guarantee that this will not change in the near future.